Can BYU reach the Big 12 title game? Here’s what the numbers say

Just a few months ago, most BYU fans would have been thrilled just to see the Cougars make it to a bowl game this year.
Following a surprising 7-0 start, however, the ceiling appears much higher for Kalani Sitake’s squad. BYU is ranked No. 11 in the nation and continues to pop up in midseason College Football Playoff projections. Not even fans with the bluest of blue goggles would have predicted such a reality this past summer.
The Cougars may be one of the sport’s most compelling stories of 2024, but the fairy tale could become even more magical before the clock strikes midnight in Provo. If the season ended today, BYU would appear in the Big 12 championship game in Arlington on Dec. 7 against Iowa State. Not too shabby for a team pegged to finish 13th in the league’s preseason poll.
But there’s still plenty of football left to be played before anyone goes to “Jerry World.” Heck, we haven’t even reached Halloween yet, and the Big 12 isn’t exactly the most predictable league out there. They don’t call it the “conference of chaos” for nothing.
With five contests left to play, the Cougars find themselves in a six-way race to the title game. Soon enough the competing schools will separate themselves as true contenders or just pretenders, but until such sifting occurs on the field, we have a useful tool to speculate the results on our own: math.
ESPN Analytics uses a number of formulas — including Football Power Index (FPI), strength of record and more — to project specific outcomes for each individual college football game. I looked into the algorithm’s projections for each remaining Big 12 contest this season to determine how the end-of-year standings might shake out — and who could play for a championship on Dec. 7.
Listed below are the six current league leaders within the Big 12 and their respective remaining schedules. Each game includes the present percentage chance ESPN Analytics gives the team to win that day, with the cumulative overall and conference records being tallied together based on what the algorithm decided.
Injuries, coaching changes, newer game results and number of other factors will certainly cause these percentages to fluctuate over the coming weeks, but for now we’ll stick to what they say today. And while you should never fully put your faith into such data, any Cougar fans who consider themselves to be analytics believers may want to look into Texas travel for early December.
Current record: 7-0 (4-0 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
Analytics-based projected final record: 11-1 (8-1 in Big 12 play).
Current record: 7-0 (4-0 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
Analytics-based projected final record: 12-0 (9-0 in Big 12 play).
Current record: 5-2 (3-1 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
Analytics-based projected final record: 10-2 (8-1 in Big 12 play).
Current record: 6-1 (3-1 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
Analytics-based projected final record: 10-2 (7-2 in Big 12 play).
Current record: 5-2 (3-1 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
Analytics-based projected final record: 7-5 (5-4 in Big 12 play).
Current record: 5-2 (3-1 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
Analytics-based projected final record: 6-6 (4-5 in Big 12 play).
Big 12 Championship Game matchup: No. 2 BYU vs. No. 1 Iowa State.
As shown in the above standings, while ESPN’s analytics project BYU and Colorado to hold the same conference record at the end of the season, the Cougars will be the ones to face off with Iowa State in the championship game.
This is due to the Big 12’s tiebreaker rules — in this case, BYU gets the nod over Colorado because the Buffaloes’ lone league loss was to Kansas State, who the Cougars defeated.
According to the Big 12 rulebook, here is the conference’s newly-established list of two-team tiebreaker policies: